tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8528856.post116274581718893146..comments2023-10-17T10:50:25.089-04:00Comments on Lumpenlogocracy: Employment and recessionsAmbivalent_Maybehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02092354702770501469noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8528856.post-1162855461425555082006-11-06T18:24:00.000-05:002006-11-06T18:24:00.000-05:00Nouriel Roubini forecast some months ago a severe ...Nouriel Roubini forecast some months ago a severe recession starting in the first quarter of 2007. So far it looks like we're right on track. <BR/><BR/>My guess is that it won't be caused by oil prices, though. Those prices have already been way high without triggering a recession. The continuing deflation of the housing market is one thing to watch, but because most of the usual economic Ambivalent_Maybehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02092354702770501469noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8528856.post-1162824343354952322006-11-06T09:45:00.000-05:002006-11-06T09:45:00.000-05:00Interesting chart. It looks as though unemployment...Interesting chart. It looks as though unemployment falls pretty slowly but steadily most of the time, except when a recession hits, when it spikes upwards. So the trick is to figure out when the next recession spike is going to hit. I'm guessing it will be closely related to, or maybe even triggered by, a rise in oil prices.Christian_Lefthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15019740651763670153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8528856.post-1162760713327370992006-11-05T16:05:00.000-05:002006-11-05T16:05:00.000-05:00As the old story goes, John tells Joe: "the econom...As the old story goes, John tells Joe: <I>"the economy has created a lot of new jobs."</I> And Joe responds, <I>"Yeah, I got four of them."</I><BR/><BR/>The figures conservative commentators cite have no bearing on people's lives. Hyper inflation in healthcare is eroding the power of everyone's paycheck. Wage stagnation continues to linger. Individuals are absorbing more risk and receiving less Robert Ellmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03526287813354418269noreply@blogger.com